One Searches for Regularities

日期:2013/05/03

One searches for regularities, vis a vis the current release, knowing that other important things like the minutes are apparently leaked to important people like heads of banks and lobbyists and journalist before its announcement. When I wrote about my chagrin concerning this, many readers wrote back to me and said "how could you be so naive. Of course that happens for this release and that release also." It reminds one of how I felt when I played against someone twice my size and strength in junior tennis when I was 12. But one searches for regularities that might signal such assymmetries in information and notes that there have been 22 small up openings as of gmt 800 before the release and 20 small down openings. The standard deviation of the sub move the rest of day is 10 in both cases which is normal for any day regardless of a ananoncement. And one notes that there seems to be no departure from randomness the rest of the day vis a vis expectations after the down and up with an average move less than 0.1 % in both cases.



The one thing one does note is that stocks and bonds are both close to their all time high. Stocks are close to the round of 16000 as is the nkikkei close to th round at 13900. Gold is close to the round of 1500 at 1476 and the yen is 2 away from the round of 100 at 9800.The euro at 131.00 seems to be at the level where the troika wants it. None of the rounds have been breached. You might say from all the numbers that the markets are very happy. One would only hope that the strength of our economy matched the strength of the markets. When B was asked how he was feeling he always answered "for a poor musician as well as expected." One feels the same way but is bewildered playing against these strong opponents.