Suppose We Wanted to Know

日期:2012/09/27

Suppose we wanted to know the likely price of cotton in 3 months. Would it be better to look at the decisions of thousands of people like Jeff who at the margin are constantly adjusting the price to the myriad uncertainties and paths, or to take a poll of farmers about it. A terrible error in this line is the idea that we're in grave trouble from the overhanding interest rate increase from the federal deficit. Should we poll all the conservatives on this point or take account of the predictions of people like Zachar and DeRosa as embodied in the market. Which is more accurate. It is interesting that Berg suggests using a random walk model to determine uncertainty attached to such noble forecasts.