One Has Always Believed

日期:2012/09/14

One has always believed that the web of interrelations between markets changes enough so that what happened more than 20 years ago, does not have the same impact that it has today. Or as ecologists put it, "there's always a web, but it's always changing". Thus, I don't keep data around more than 20 or 50 years ago except in books like the investors statistical lab from 1961 (one always has to cajole the little woman into not throwing away the 1961 edition which in just 800 pages or so contained the daily hi lo and clo of every NYSE stock), or S&P security price index record or Dow Jones historical price data or the 150 big books on hourly prices on 30 markets one has been keeping since 1960. (Frank Cross had a very neat handwriting and there were only 5 or 10 markets we inputed into the book.) However, I'm happy to say, there was at least a 17 year record for worst move ever after an auction of the 30 year. It's down as one speaks a good 1 and a third big points. The previous record was 9/10 of a point decline.



As mentioned, this is not the way the game is played. The flexions and dealers that buy the long bond at the auction every 45 days are accustomed to an immediate profit in at least the same ratio as the current intrade odds on the incumbent to win of 2 to 1 ). Thus the adage "this isn't cricket" must be echoing down the marbled corridors of many a flexionic hallway today and there will not be as much merriment as usual for the fixed income crowd at their weekend summer windup revels.