Negative Sequences

作者:Victor Niederhoffer
日期:2011/08/05

It is interesting to contemplate that we have gone through two round numbers of 100 like from above 1300 to below 1300 to below 1200 without a rise above 1300 only 3 times in the last 15 years. On one of those occasions on 11/11/2008 the market dropped from 1196 to 893 to set its negative sequence; i.e, it was at 893 when it set the sequence. Subsequently it jerked around a bit before its inevitable rise. I call these things negative sequences in honor of Alfred Cowles who first studied them in the 1920s. I had the pleasure of corresponding with Cowles in the 1960s and he was very forthright in saying that after corresponding with me, he understood why his fills were always so bad.