作者:Victor Niederhoffer
日期:2011/07/08
Nothing underlines the absurdity of the announcements more than today. The standard errors or two samples of 245,000 and 345,000 out of a million are of the order of 1/1000 of the number estimated. Normally it would be 1/500 but when you take a sample of 1/2 of the total as the ADM and BLS did, the standard error must be reduced accordingly. "It's an art as much as a science," the BLS said in describing their seasonal adjustment that takes account of the teachers that were out of work, and such seasonal things as semi-pro hockey players who work just 6 months of year.
What a joke. What a travesty. What a display that the numbers are motivated by factors not related to anything real. And that the next number they'll be double careful to give the side of the aisle what they want. Mr. Sogi critiques my flexionic posts very justly but in each of my posts, I try to contain a quantitative meal for a life time.
沒有留言:
張貼留言