A Positive Black Swan

作者:Victor Niederhoffer
日期:2010/12/29

We've all seen too many black swans over the past decade. But why must all the black swans be negative? Why can't we have a black swan on the positive side?

This is NOT my prediction– but it's worth contemplating the following from Jan Hatzius (GS). In a nutshell, he alleges that much of the recent economic sluggishness is attributable to deleveraging in the private sector. And he suggests that this is coming to an end.

As a thought experiment, I'm analyzing how Hatzius' outlier prediction of 6% or 7% growth in 2011 might affect my portfolios. I routinely fret about double dips, and triple dips, European crises, and $30 oil/$200 oil, but I haven't spent much time fretting about 7% growth…but I probably should! Is it possible that we'll look back at QE2 with the same funds that we look back at the final Fed rate cut during the summer of 1993? (It's left as an exercise for the reader to see how stocks, bonds, and commodities behaved in 1994.)

And, why is Hatzius' prediction any wackier than Mr. Roubini's repeated predictions in 2005 and 2006 and 2007?

(Oh, and by the way, the US commercial truck fleet age is now the oldest that it's even been!)

From the FT:

Jan Hatzius, chief US economist of Goldman Sachs, is one who has become more positive. "There's been a clear improvement in underlying final demand," he says. "My explanation is that we're seeing a slowdown in the pace of deleveraging in the private sector." Deleveraging is the fundamental reason why the economic recovery since 2009 has been so slow. It explains why unemployment remains stuck at 9.8 per cent.


The call on consumption is contentious because debt levels in the US remain high by historical levels. Household debt, at about 90 per cent of GDP, is back to levels seen in 2005 but it would take years of deleveraging to return to the 80 per cent seen in 2002-03. Consumers do not need to stop saving, however. They just need to stop increasing the rate at which they save for the economy to grow.


If the US populace really does begin to catch up on consumption after three miserable years then growth could hit 6 per cent or even 7 per cent in 2011. The chances of that remain modest – but if it happens then the boost to confidence may feed on itself and the nastiest US downturn in decades might truly start to feel as if it is over…