What I Would Have Told My Kids

日期:2017/03/13

After reading by courts leave the investment outlook of the Upside Down Man:

Kids, you should know one thing more. There's a concept in economics called opportunity cost. It's how much you lost by not doing something rather than the thing you chose. It's the return on the alternate lucrative investment– the return on what you chose.

To be fair, I can't remember very far back possibly because of all the troubles I'm having with Mommy, the courts, my former partners, and lawyers I've been having lately. But I've been saying stay out of equities pretty continuously since at least 1988 I think. The dow was 2000 then. Certainly since 2009 when I said "death of equities" when the Dow was 6000. As you know, the Dow is 21,000 now. So the opportunity cost of following what I've just told you and what I've been saying is $10,000 to $3,500 for each $1000 that you have in your accounts.



There is a group from Chicago and a group from London that has been calculating what a 1000 invested in 1900 and held to the present would have yielded. They find that 1000 indexed about that time would have grown to about $40 million today. It's been about that much for most countries including the Scandinavian one where it would have been more, England about the same, Japan, a lot more. Except for China and Russia (taking these into account would lower the return to about 30 million.)

Ask yourself. Are conditions so much worse today than what they were in England 100 years ago. They were decimated by two world wars, lost their entire empire, and lost their position as king of the financial world among other things. What would these returns have been like if all countries were to have engaged in a pro business, low taxed, low regulation, reduced income transfer society like the current thing in the US today versus the opposite type of thinking that took over much of the world during the past 100 years.

There's a creepy guy in Connecticut that calls me the Upside Down Man, because I like to hang upside down during my 1 hour Yoga sessions. He invests his children's money in index funds like Spiders and Vanguard Mutual funds. And they've duplicated the returns of the Chicago and London guys. So far, following my advice would have been disastrous to you, and it probably cost trillions to those who followed my advice in the past because I am somewhat revered as a legend, and appear on TV often, and was known to be King of the bond market. So take my advice with a grain of salt.