The Surfing Grain Trader’s Post

日期:2015/6/12

The surfing grain trader's post brings to mind the fine performance of Guys and Dolls one saw at the goodspeed last Saturday, as well as the sordid life of Titanic Thompson on whom the character of Sky Masterson was developed. And a bit of counting inspired by the surfing grain trader.

Given we were NOT red or NOT green or NOT yellow or NOT blue yesterday,(lets call that a failure ), what is the duration until the next occasion of a success.

Duration to next success after a failure yesterday of 4 colors 2007 to date:



     after green   4.7 days
      after red     8.4 days
      after blue    3.6 days
      after yellow  3.0 days

Green is both up, red is both down, blue is bonds up, S&P down, yellow is  bonds down, S&P up.    The unconditional chances of green, red, yellow, and blue were
 respectively, 0.21, 0.12, 0.30, 0.33.

One leaves it to the reader's judgment whether this sort of counting can compare in its utility to that of the surf grain trader.