A Shocking Decline

日期:2013/06/03

A shocking decline in S&P of 28 points occurred in the last 2 hours of trading on Friday, the largest since 9/21/2011. The present countist inquires whether any of the following have descriptive or predictive significance.

1. It was preceded on Tuesday by a 3 1/4 point decline on Tuesday in bonds, the largest since 11/1/2011. Was it causal?

2. As of 2 pm on Friday, the bonds were down 9 points since the beginning of the month, the worst decline since may/27/2009. Did it cause the decline?

3. The ratio of stocks to bonds at 118 as of 2pm was the highest in at least 10 years. Did it trip the wire?



4. Are the moves in 4 day weeks significantly more volatile than those in 5 days weeks?

5. Ends of months in the past have traditionally been times for those who don't trust business and believe in fairy tales to sell stocks on the grounds that they're bearish. This has vanished for a few years as they licked their wounds. Did they come out of the closet once again?

6. Gold had receded by 30 bucks by 2pm on Friday, hitting 1388 below the round of 1400. Was it a harbinger?

7. Japan dropped 4% on wed overnight, with no apparent impact on Europe and North America. Was it a pilot fish?

8. A tweet by The Upside Down Man that he was no longer bearish on 5 year and 10 years came at exactly the time of the devastating decline and managed to pick bonds up by a point in the subsequent 1/2 hour before the denouement from 3 m to 4 pm in SPU.

9. It was the end of the month and those who sold puts and bought calls had been having a field day for 18 months. Were they complacent and did they get their due.

10. Did margin calls in bonds and gold especially for those who banks were closed in the Mideast and those who can be sold out with 1 second notice from their internet accounts exacerbate the final deluge?