Briefly Speaking

作者:Victor Niederhoffer
日期:2011/08/30

1. I hypothesize without testing that the movement on the announcement of the open market minutes (happens to be announced today at 2:00 pm) is opposite from the movement during the comparable period when the open market meeting actually met. Last meeting was Aug 9. Rallied 57 big points 5% from 1500gmt tp 1615. I have not tested this at all. Could be opposite from my hypothesis with equal probability or random.

2. It is common in sports these days to have flashed on the screen such statistics as Nadal has lost only 1 or 57 matches at the open when he won the first set. Or the Yankees are 57 and 2 in won games when they were ahead in the seventh inning. Such statistics are almost as worthless as the January barometer suffering from selection bias, the part whole bias, multiple classification bias, look back bias, differential enhanced probabiities of winning the next inning or set given you are ahead to start et al. But when you see a come back, it is interesting in many respects. Today's moves from up 8 on day with 10 or 20 minutes to go, to down 3 by end of day is a classic in that regard. Just a once in a year event. Hats off to the market mistress for ending our summer in such an usual day, showing us that she still is active and fertile in imagination and ability to take our chips.