Nobody asked me but…

日期:2017/03/05

Nobody asked me, but here are some quick observations:

There is more wisdom in the Ticker Magazine of 2007 and 2008 than all the investment books and magazine in the last 110 years combined [link ] . Why?

The new guard of bond traders at Pimco is a credit to our profession and their attention to detail in the prospectuses and their emphasis on contrary trading has a pleasant resonance to our own inestimable and dearly departed Mr. E. [Pimco's new bond chief ].

Every day the market swoons on some contrived piece of news to make the president look bad and create fear and churning and then closes the day at a new high. On 64 of the last 293 days since year end 2015 the spu closed at a 20 day hi. Since year end 2008, it is 489 out of last 2097 that closed at a 20 day high. It is a testimony to the wisdom of the Triumpal Trio and our own L. Williams and R. Vince



A 6' 11 inch giant who played for the Knicks and whose father could have a better + - record than the son is not content to stay disabled and wishes to come back reminiscent in my opinion of Lenny in "of mice and men ".

The three best books on investment are Bacon, Green and Tarbeaux but they are all only 90 years old rather than the usual hundred that the Markman edition of Clews is also highly recommended

A simulation of seasonalities in markets shows that there is a non-random seasonality in the bond market but not in stocks or gold I think.

When one has a very good hand in poker there is a very much elevated chance that another player has an excellent hand also. This of course is not random but a result of sampling without replacement. However in markets, runs of unusual moves in one market are often followed by runs of unusual moves in another market and this a non-random regularity. For example there were 5 red days in a row in Feb, 2017 and they were followed by 5 yellow days in a row.

The moves in the German Bunds often foretells the moves in the Us bonds

The precious metals takes big positive moves to an inordinate degree around holidays and big announcement days

The bonds like like it when the dollar is up, and the stocks like it when the dollar is down.

The ratio of the Dax to the Sp stays remarkably close to 5 over time

The stocks to bond ratio at 16 is at an all time high

All news that is favorable to the current administration will be suppressed and all news that is unfavorable will be emphasized

I challenge anyone to read the chapter on accounting for cattle profits and the race between the horse riders and the train without crying