Red and Green Days

日期:2015/06/03

There has been a subtle change in the comovements and contramovements between bonds and SPU during the same day in 2015 from previous years. Given that bonds are down the conditional prob of stocks being up has been 60% in 2015, 80% in 2014, 68% in 2013, 82% in 2012, 79% in 2011. Given that bonds were up, the conditional prob of stocks being up has been 38% in 2015, 48% in 2014, 51% in 2013, 30% in 2012, 31%% in 2011 note that these are movements during the same period, not leading in any way. Assuming perfect knowledge, it would be useful, but it is purely descriptive. However, what the descriptive tab shows, is that comovements , the red and green in our tabs, have been relatively more numerous this year, than in previous years. Indeed there were 39 comovements so far in 2015, and 62 countermovements, giving comovements as 38%. In 2012, and 2011, the comovements were just 26% of the total.