One Has Always Felt

日期:2013/02/01

One has always felt that the unemployment rate is much more important than the jobs created because the seasonal adjustments so much dwarf the other things that the adjusted jobs created is meaningless. At least with the rate, you get the numerator and denominator adjusted by the same meaningless number so that in a sense the worthless seasonal adjustment cancels out. It is curious how the unemployment rate has now ratcheted up to a politically unfavorable level after the election as have so many other things like the Mideast situation. Everything was on hold until after the fair haired boy won. One is reminded that according to what I read, French equities went up strongly during the French Revolution.



I have never had any good insights into macroeconomic policy and so many people are more sagacious than I about this and other things that at least I know not to base any trades on my macro analysis. Even if the vast majority were not more sagacious than I on this subject, all it takes are a few big ones at the margin to put prices where they should be so that any insights I had on this subject would just contribute to vig and fear as the market moved against me and I had no rudder. One is also reminded that the market could move with you for random reasons when you are lucky. And that would make you twist on a string in the wind also.

The simple post medieval pre-enlightenment man who apparently runs the world's leading technically based fund was a very astute businessman. He bought a system from a colleague mathematician at MIT, It was supposed to generate 50% a year profits… But the Simple person from Harvard said, "look, if it makes much more than 50%, it's not working and you're not entitled to your agreed upon share. Okay?" Fine, the MIT guy said. My goodness, sometimes professors don't have much common sense.