Briefly Speaking

作者:Victor Niederhoffer
日期:2012/02/13

1. It is remarkable to have a streak of 30 consecutive days go by in the SPU's without a move down of 1/2% or so broken like it was on Friday. The way it was broken with an up from open to close after a down open of 1%, yet down on the day is equally remarkable. It shows to me that the recent spate of 15 days with a vix below 20%, and volume below 2 million contracts is causing strains in the underpinning of the market, as there's not enough happening to cause the public to lose as much as it should to keep the wheels of commerce going (although less would seem to be required when the market goes up 15% without a single down day of consequence). It also shows the infinite creativity of the market. One notes also that this is the longest stretch of daily S&P moves without a decline of 0.5% going back at least 15 years.



2. How many times does the market mistress pull out of the hat "Greek Deal Falling Apart" one day and cause massive public selling and then the next– "Greece Parliament Approves Austerity Plan". It's happened about 10 times, and countless billions by the public has been lost. You'd think that the same old overreaction to bad news gambit would not work so many times in a row, but …. we're close to a 50, and I guess anything goes until we get there.