One Notes

日期:2013/06/20

One notes that bonds and stocks have to an inordinate extent gone in opposite directions for 7 years. For example, since 2008 on days when stocks were down 20 or more, bonds were up 120 times and down just 12 for a 10 to 1 odds ratio. With bonds down 200 or more, stocks were up concurrently 25 and down 6, a 4 to 1 odds ratio. There was just 1 occasion in the last 5 1/2 years when both bonds and stocks down 200 on the day, 1/30/2009. It's great to be living in historic times.

One Would

One would speculate as one often does when seeming short term liquidity is tightened but long term inflationary expectations are dampened, that another day or two like this, and the flexions can forget about ever having to give up on qe2 because the wealth effect will contribute to an increase in unemployment.