Briefly Speaking

日期:2013/05/18

The regularities in fixed income seem much less numerous than the regularities in stocks. What is the cause of this?

First one market goes down much in one week, then another market goes down the next week. Is it random or predictable ? Last week it was gold.

Is there an all seeing eye that looks for ways to inspire mish and churning in markets that learns from recent outcomes and paths of scores in vivid sports events?

The growth in the belief in the value and inevitability of the world state has preceded the decline in gold.



The gold is down 7 days in a row and this has happened only 4 times since the new millennium. But it is unlike other markets except bonds. Why?
number of runs of 7 or more in new millenium

market      up runs         down runs

bonds       9                 3
sp         40                 7
bunds      11                16
dax        21                10
nas        41                13
gold       18                 4
crude      14                18
euro(fx)   15                10
yen        15                10

The number of bonds you could buy with one spu (i.e the stock to bond ratio) and the amount of gold you could buy with one spu (i.e. the stock to gold ratio), are at 5 year highs. What does this portend? Are there any other ratios of moment and are they predictive?

Why have central banks which used to be in general antithetical to big stock market rises become so favorable to them, to the extent that many of them are buying equities themselves?

What is the frequency of scandals as a function of the duration before and after major elections?

What are the seasonal tendencies of the outbreak of wars as a function of weather?

The nikkei to spu ratio was once 60 and fell to 7 and is now 9.5. Does it show trends? ( one must check these numbers).

The vix is at 12.5, and all who have sold puts on stocks have made fortunes since 2008. How will this situation be rectified?

The euro at $1.28 is in the lower half of its 1.60 to 1.20 range since 2005. Is the Troika getting an itchy finger? And do they like to see the US wealth prospering at their expense?

And just one more: Is there a point in life and markets, where all resistance to pressure to succumb ceases as in Beauty and the Beast or a market rise of a certain % in the case of stocks or a decline of a certain % in the case of bonds? The danger of relying on a equilibrium ratio comes to mind with the ratio of stocks to bonds at a 6 year high.