Governments and Markets

日期:2012/09/02

One of the great regularities that I have observed from a long and not uneventful career in trading is that whatever governments want, the governments get. If they want stock prices to rise before an election, or oil prices to decrease or commodity prices to decrease they get it. They have so many trillions to work with, so many entities that can be called on to increase the perks and power of the governmental entities. There's the EU, the IMF, the central banks, the what have you. It always amazed me that the palindrome was able to overcome the Old Lady on the pound. All HM Government had to do was tell the private banks to charge 200% interest to the palindrome on the leverage. In those days, presumably the private banks were more independent, but now their very survival, profitability, and existence is dependent on the good will of the governments with the direct investments, the bailouts, the purchase of bad assets, the cost of borrowing reserves, the fines, the regulations that permit their existence unless they agree to further the "Idea". The whole thing must be quantified. And a subset of governmental market reactions must be found that are susceptible to predictions based on specific times, and events. (I think).